Red Lentils

The special crops market has not been exciting, and I prefer not to fill your inbox with unnecessary emails.

I last looked at Red Lentil on April 23rd.

The weekly chart below shows the average Saskatchewan plant price dating back to 2019.

You will notice that the price on my chart is lower than some of the local bids.

Some have suggested using the highest published price, although it may be low volume short covering and not represent the market.

Oddly, no one has suggested that the lowest price is the most accurate despite representing the most buyers.

You see the challenge.

However, I use average prices collected weekly from the same source.

My thesis is that a reliable, consistent average price source is appropriate for my analysis providing advance notice of trend changes.

We can see that the price is below the 20-, 30- 40-, and 50 Week Moving Averages (Week MA).

While the longer-term moving averages are advancing, I don’t trust the price below the 40- or 50 Week MA.

The price seems to be finding resistance near my January 14 sell signal of $43.

The yellow trendline is still intact, the overall posture is bullish, and I am not getting sell signals.

A new high above $45 will align the removing averages, making me bullish.

I become bearish below $35, although that level is likely to be raised in the coming weeks.

However,

This chart has the price in a no-trade zone, and I remain neutral.

My strategy currently tells me to be Long above $45 and Short below $35.

I prefer to use logarithmic charts and provide one below.

As you can see, the price has been unable to break above the yellow trendline.

I remain neutral using the Log chart, leaning to bearish while the price is below this yellow trend line.

I will be watching this chart for the next few months to see how this plays out.