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- Green Lentils with David Nobbs
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This video, the first in a series of conversations, focuses on the 2025 outlook for green lentils, including large green, small green (Estons), and French green varieties, featuring insights from Trent Klarenbach and David Nobbs of Harvest Grain and Bornhorst Seed.
Key points include:
Data Collection Methodology:
David Nobbs emphasizes a data-driven approach to crop assessment, using field counts (approximately 2,700 fields across specific highways), Saskatchewan crop insurance values, and acknowledging the limitations of Stats Canada data due to manipulation and modeling. This method aims to provide hard data and trend insights beyond visual observation.
Large Green Lentils:
Stat Canada reports a 30% increase in large green lentil acreage in 2025 over 2024, reaching about 1.44 million acres. This increase is partly due to growers shifting from red lentils.
Overall green lentil acreage has doubled since the 2021 drought year.
A significant oversupply is anticipated, with estimated production of 800,000 tons this year compared to traditional markets of 300,000-500,000 tons.
The Indian market, a major destination last year, is currently closed due to a 10% tariff and a strong domestic pigeon pea crop, making large green lentils uncompetitive at current prices (around 33 cents).
Historical parallels to 2005 (when prices dropped to 8 cents) are drawn, indicating potential for significant price declines. Technical analysis suggests a potential drop to 12 cents based on a head and shoulders pattern.
While quality is still being assessed, the overall tonnage is expected to be sufficient to meet demand, preventing significant price jumps.
Small Green Lentils (Estons):
The Eston market has a core demand of 150,000 tons, with a total market of 200,000-250,000 tons.
Stats Canada indicates a 44% increase in Eston acreage in 2025, reaching approximately 700,000 acres, largely at the expense of red lentil acreage.
This production is estimated to be twice what the market needs, suggesting significant oversupply.
Eston lentils hold their grade well, and some lower quality (number two or extra three) Estons are anticipated due to early rains, which may open new markets.
Technical analysis points to a potential price decline to 10-15 cents, based on a head and shoulders pattern from current levels around 30 cents.
The recommendation is to sell product off the field due to the prevailing downtrend.
French Green Lentils:
This is a niche crop with demand of 15,000-20,000 tons, primarily in France.
The market has been very slow, with little new crop pricing and limited sales of both 2024 and 2025 crops.
Significant struggles in movement are anticipated for the current year.
Global Competition and Market Factors:
Russia and Kazakhstan have increased green lentil acreage. The appreciating ruble impacts Russian grower returns.
Turkish and Spanish green lentil crops were poor, offering minor positive impacts on demand but not enough to offset the overall imbalance.
The US green lentil acreage is up significantly (estimated 25%), and the absence of the PL-480 aid program further impacts their market.
Harvest Grain Initiatives:
Harvest Grain has acquired breeder seed for CDC 7030, a Spanish brown lentil variety (Pardina in the US), with production anticipated for 2026. This niche crop presents high value when demand from Spain is strong.
Marketing Strategy:
David Nobbs emphasizes the importance of marketing based on current information and securing margins through volume rather than holding for potentially higher future prices, especially in downtrending markets.
The best prices are often realized off the field during harvest in such trends.
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Trent Klarenbach
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Nothing written, expressed, or implied here should be looked at as investment advice or an admonition to buy, sell, or trade any security or financial instrument. As always, do your own diligence.
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